If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait - MarketWatchThe price of gas could continue to climb. In a worse case scenario reported by MarketWatch a gallon of gas could cost $6 to $7 in the next six months to two years. All of this depends on oil going up to $200 a barrel.
Many analysts consider $4-a-gallon retail gasoline across the U.S. a foregone conclusion this summer driving season, a period of typically peak demand, but those estimates take only current record-high oil prices into account. Thursday, light, sweet crude futures breached $135 a barrel, more than double the price a year ago.
If oil hits $200 a barrel, which is the upper end of Goldman Sach's prediction for prices over the next six months to two years, the gasoline picture changes quite dramatically. At $200 a barrel, crude alone would cost $4.76 a gallon. Add on the costs of refining and distributing as well as taxes, and pump prices could rise to a range of $6 to $7 a gallon.
U.S. drivers haven't radically changed their behavior, and it is unclear at what price it becomes unprofitable for Americans to go about their usual day-to-day activities, said Eric DeGesero, executive vice president of the Fuel Merchants Association of New Jersey.
Many American drivers already think it is too expensive to go about their daily business. The price of diesel has already topped $5 a gallon. Most goods are shipped via trucks. Trains run on diesel. Now would be a bad time to be in the shipping business. Look for the rates for shipping for both food and books from Amazon.com increase because the price of fuel will be passes along to consumers. Inflated fuel prices will speed inflation in other sectors of the economy.
The only thing drivers can do now is drive less: less demand will help bring down the cost of gas. And hope and pray we never see $7 a gallon gas.
